Crimea is under siege for two years, and Northern Cyprus is more than forty years. These territories have much in common in historical retrospective. What is the future of these regions and the role they can play in relations between Russia and Turkey and how it will affect the geopolitical situation in the middle East? This says historian Alexander Shirokorad.
The US and the EU staged a blockade of the territory, hoping to draw them a desolate wilderness. Do not go there of their trading ships do not fly their planes, there is no legal exchange of goods, etc.
Globalization and universal integration has allowed the United States to control the activities of the vast majority of Western companies and to forbid them to work in any country that the White house will announce an outcast. We are talking about transport, banking, tourism, communications, etc.
Crimea is under siege for two years, and Northern Cyprus more than 40 years. Despite the fact that Turkey — since 1952, a permanent member of NATO and is considered a political and military ally of the United States. And we still have "Karas-the idealists", claiming that a year or two and everything will be settled, and the United States and the EU recognize the reunification of Crimea with Russia, the Peninsula will go hundreds of thousands of Western tourists.
In addition, Northern Cyprus and the Crimea are in an information blockade. What is happening in Famagusta, known only to the Turks, and that at Yalta, only Russians.
From April 2014 to July 2016 in the Crimea, visited only one foreign ship — "Ocean Majesty", who came to Yalta on September 17 2014, 436 tourists from Europe, mostly from Germany. Went in a comfortable bus to Livadia and Vorontsov palaces, and then for a tasting of Massandra wines only 336 people. One hundred tourists were afraid to go ashore. Well, travelled keenly interested in the guides, on any of the streets of Yalta are Russian tanks, why not hear shooting, etc.
Last year from southern Cyprus returned a friend of his wife — the chief accountant of one solid company that considers itself the most intelligent among his friends, well, they called her "Monkey". The question was called on Northern Cyprus, the Monkey said, "Yes, there is a desert! Nobody goes there". Here the level of awareness of Russian and European citizen about North Cyprus and the Crimea.
Oddly enough, but in the history of the Crimea and Cyprus have much in common. In IV-V centuries, the population of both regions adopted Christianity in the nourishment of the Patriarch of Constantinople.
In 1191, the British king Richard the lion Heart sailed with his army past belonged to the Byzantine Empire Cyprus to liberate the Holy sepulchre from the Muslims. Knight's heart faltered, seeing the flourishing cities and fields. Richard captured the island, destroying the inhabitants naked, and sold the island to the knights of the Holy Sepulchre. Knights resold Cyprus to Lusignan, king of Jerusalem. His brother, Amani took the title of king of Cyprus. Later, Cyprus was annexed by Venice.
Well, the southern coast of Crimea in the XIII century was captured by the Genoese. In 1475 the Turks drove the Genoese from the Crimea, and in 1573 the Venetians from Cyprus. And in 1878 Britain occupied the Turkish island of Cyprus, in return, promised to support the Sultan against Russia.
In 1960 Britain granted independence to Cyprus, leaving behind military bases on the island, functioning to this day. In 1963 the island had a conflict of Turks and Greeks.
In July 1974, with the support of the Greek military junta on the island was a military coup. The President of the Republic of Cyprus Makarios was overthrown and control of the island passed to Nikos Sampson, the representative of the Greek underground organization EOKA-B, who advocated the accession of Cyprus to Greece (enosis). Taking advantage of the provisions of the Treaty of 1960, in which Turkey and Greece became the guarantors of an independent Cyprus, under the pretext of restoring the constitutional government of Cyprus was invaded by Turkish troops. Cyprus was divided into a North controlled by Turkish Cypriots, and the South, controlled by the Greek Cypriots.
After long and fruitless negotiations with the Greeks the Turkish community in 1983 declared its independence. In a referendum on 5 may 1985 with a majority of 70.2% was adopted the Constitution of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
US and EU always crucified on the primacy of the will of the people... of Course, when it is in their interest. In a referendum in Northern Cyprus and in the Crimea, they do not care with a high steeple. But the independence of Kosovo, US and EU are admitted without a referendum there.
Recently, Secretary Kerry has hinted to Erdogan that Turkey can get kicked out of NATO. Sorry, but "on a Fig to a goat a Bayan"? Turkey got into NATO in 1952, scaring Soviet aggression. Won't confess, then, our policy has charged the southern neighbor of excessive demands.
And then NATO only interfered with Turkey, for example, not allowing it to resolve the territorial dispute with Greece in the Aegean sea, prevented the establishment of the Republic of Northern Cyprus, bothered to fight with the Kurds, etc.
And now the White house has embarked on the creation of the Kurdish entities in Northern Iraq and Syria. At the very beginning of the Syrian civil war in the country in a report by the British think-tank, Society Henry Jackson, the Syrian Kurds have been called the "decisive minority". Well, in Syria, joking that if the devil promised the Kurds independence, they would have rushed into battle on the side of Shaytan.
The Kurds are an ancient enemy of the Turks. In 1922 Mustafa Kemal, the future Ataturk declared that Turkey only live among the Turks and no Kurds or Greeks or Armenians or Jews. The Kurds have responded to numerous uprisings. The armed struggle of the Kurds does not stop to this day.
Creating one or two Kurdish States in Iraq and Syria on the border with Turkey, populated by Turkish Kurds will inevitably lead to the partition of the Turkish state. Fortunately, now under the gun in Iraq and Syria is more than 100 thousand well-armed and trained American allies the Kurds.
It is possible that after a few weeks or months of confrontation the US and the EU will make a deal with Erdogan. It will inevitably be a triumph for the Turkish dictator, and the defeat of the West.
Maybe in a few weeks in Turkey will see a new military coup. Fortunately, dissatisfied with Erdogan in Turkey abound among both the military and civilians. However, the army has significantly cleared of malcontents, and this process will continue in the foreseeable future.
After the suppression of the coup is a growing rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. Can this process bring real benefits to both countries? The probability of a political Alliance of Turkey and Russia, I estimated at 40 percent. Too many sticks in the wheels of our approximation can insert the US and the EU.
But if such a Union does take place, the possibilities are truly endless. In economic terms, this is "Turkish stream" hydrocarbons under the Black sea. This immense prospects for activity in Russia of Turkish companies, including construction. This trip of tens of millions of Russians on holiday in Turkey.
And what are the political prospects of the Union? Could Putin to persuade Syria's President Assad to give autonomy to the Turkomans in Northern Syria? This does not contradict the interests of Russia.
Do we need a Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq? It is very necessary. But only in the event of a confrontation with Turkey. In the case of an Alliance with Turkey, they will only create problems for Russia. It is an American care of the Kurds, and the conflict with Iran are extremely wary of creating a Kurdish state. Fortunately, the Iranian Kurds dream of a "square".
The political Union of Russia and Turkey in a few weeks to break up this total blockade of the West.
Imagine for a moment that the two dozen huge chartered by Russia and Turkey liners will begin cruises on the route Sevastopol — Yalta — Kerch — Sukhum — Istanbul — North Cyprus.
North Cyprus is a Paradise for Russian tourists and entrepreneurs. For example, a two-bedroom apartment near the sea is five times cheaper than in Moscow, and six times cheaper than in Spain.
Well, the Crimea will become a goldmine for Turkish construction and trading companies. Over 20 years of Ukrainian "independence" the infrastructure of the Peninsula was destroyed more than 60 percent. Most resorts in poor condition.
The population of the Peninsula is not eager to go to the construction roads, airfields etc., you Can dial the builders-guest workers, but they probably will build the hack, which will have a year to fix. Well, the main concern of the "tumbleweed" will be to consolidate themselves on the Sunny Peninsula, and then drag his numerous relatives and friends.
Economic and political cooperation between Turkey and Russia is a fairy tale. But to become a reality, Moscow and Ankara will have to overcome enormous difficulties.