Sunday, November 29, 2015

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Ankara has actually opened a new front against Russia

GREAT RUSSIA! Russian do not surrender!
Turkey reopens the Karabakh confrontation

What will Ankara's attempt to inflate the conflict in the Caucasus?

The conflict between Moscow and Ankara took an unexpected turn. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has actually opened a new front against Russia and its ally Armenia: he promised "to do everything possible to liberate the occupied territories of Azerbaijan". in Other words to inflate the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this way Ankara has reacted to intention of Russia to impose sanctions on the Turkish economy and to inflict a political blow to the image of Turkey due to the collapse of a number of bilateral projects.

His revenge Ankara decided not to pigeonhole. On Friday, Turkey's foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu held talks with the leadership of this country. Meanwhile, a diplomatic solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue with Turkish mediation. Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia torn, and the border of the two countries is closed. So, it was about something else.

We must realize that Karabakh is a great powder keg in the Caucasus. Recall that this region is Armenian land, which the rights of autonomy was in 1921 included in the Azerbaijan SSR. According to one version, the Bolshevik leadership took this step despite the fact that the vast majority of the population of the autonomy were Armenians — in order to ensure Soviet Russia political rapprochement with Kemalist Turkey.

In 1991-1994, the confrontation between Azerbaijanis and Armenians had resulted in large-scale military action for control of Karabakh. Moreover, according to the level of opposition to this war surpassed only Chechen campaign. However, as rightly noted by the Director of the Stockholm Institute for security and development (ISDP) Svante Cornell, "the Caucasus conflict, the Karabakh conflict has the greatest strategic and regional importance. This conflict only in the former Soviet Union, which directly involved two independent States. Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict contributed to the formation of the Caucasus and around opposing groups of States".

And now, apparently, Ankara is eager to splash the kerosene into the smouldering fire Karabakh. Since, as follows from the findings of Cornell, is the best way to unleash a major war in the Caucasus.

How far I will go to Turkey its a dangerous game where it will lead?

— When Turkey was on the rise, while Azerbaijan did not hesitate to designate the Pro-Turkish military-political orientation, Ankara and Baku could play the Armenian card and including the Karabakh conflict, — said the Director of the Research center "the middle East-the Caucasus" of the International Institute of the newest States Stanislav Tarasov.

— However, due to diplomatic miscalculations of both sides are unable to arrange your own solitaire in Transcaucasia. Baku, for instance, in 2009 blocked the signing of the Zurich protocols between Turkey and Armenia, which were intended to normalise relations between the two countries. And thereby reduce the possibility to influence the situation in Karabakh.

But now — after Moscow entered with Turkey in the clinch position Baku has declined sharply. Now Moscow has a free hand. The Russian side very carefully before behaved with regard to the Karabakh conflict, and did not provide adequate support for Armenia, which she needed as a member of the CSTO and the Eurasian Union. Now it became clear: the only ally of Russia in the region is Armenia.

At the same time Moscow, in connection with the Syrian operation, need a second defensive line on the river Arax — the former border between the Russian Empire and Iran, and then the southern border of the USSR. And it does make a difference in the balance of forces and interests.

"SP": — what Cavusoglu talked with the Azerbaijani leadership?

Is a sounding visit. According to some reports, the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry requested the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to reconcile the leaders of Russia and Turkey — Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. But Aliyev is not Putin's authority figure, and many times he substituted the Russian President. He cannot act as a guarantor, and second Lukashenko too does not become.

Meanwhile, we are talking about very serious things. The events in Syria can start to develop quite differently, as seen initially. And we need a springboard to be able to go to Syria from the Caucasus.

Now, therefore, Azerbaijan must make a choice: with whom to enter into a close Alliance with Turkey or with Russia? I think Ilham Aliyev is smarter Erdogan — he will try to keep all communication with Moscow, to establish the partnership, and will actually pass the Turkish President.

"SP": — what will be this close Alliance with Moscow?

— To ensure transport corridor to Syria. We now fly to Syria to bypass the territory of Azerbaijan, shoot missiles to bypass this territory. In the case of the Alliance of Moscow-Baku on the territory of the Republic may receive an airport transit hub for Russian HQs.

In addition, as soon as Aliyev will start to drift towards the North to maintain their power, the Alliance of Azerbaijan with Turkey will be destroyed. Anyway, with the regime that is now in Ankara.

I think Aliyev will do so, because the current Turkish regime has positioned itself as a supporter of terrorism. The Alliance with such a abettor is politically very disadvantageous marriage.

"SP": — But if Ilham Aliyev will choose the Alliance with Ankara?

Then we will build up the group in Armenia, we'll just have to do. Before the Syrian crisis, such actions of the Russian Federation could be perceived as a challenge in Azerbaijan, but now such a local perception has receded into the background. In Syria there is a serious war, and, roughly speaking, to spit on Baku — we protect our national interests.

The problem is that Azerbaijan alone will not be able to keep the offensive of radical Islamists. This is, in particular, says the recent incident in the suburb of Baku, where law enforcement officers exchanged fire with members of radical Islamist organizations that are entrenched in the mosque. During the clashes killed eight people. According to the Azerbaijani police, members of the group were planning terrorist attacks and riots.

We cannot hope that Baku will hold the wave of radical Islamism that may come from Syria. This means, after some time the militants, who fought against Assad, may be on our the North Caucasus. Moscow, such a scenario does not suit, and she intends to fight back against the extremists even in far away areas.

"SP": — Turkey could encourage Azerbaijan to "hot" conflict in Karabakh?

— In Karabakh and without having to constantly shoot. International mediators are not there, to figure out who's firing difficult, and the parties blame each other. In this situation, Aliyev waited a favourable geopolitical environment. He believed in the weakening of Russia, the strengthening of Turkey and the strengthening of the position of the West, believed that one day will be able to twist the RAM's horn and Armenia to solve the Karabakh problem.

But things went differently. Turkey has weakened, at the regional stage was Iran, and Russia has been strengthened. And it turned out that Azerbaijan is locked in a historical framework, because it has historical relations with Turkey, and consists of khanates, which were once part of the Persian, not the Ottoman Empire.

But to exclude the "hot" scenario in Karabakh. The visit of Cavusoglu is of a reconnaissance nature — about the beginning of the big provocations on the level of Ministers for foreign Affairs does not agree. But I think that Cavusoglu will bring Erdogan important preliminary information that politicians and diplomats are exchanged only tete-a-tete.

I don't think Baku will now go to an armed provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh, — said academician of the Academy of geopolitical problems, in 1996 and 2001, the head of the Main Department of international military cooperation of the defense Ministry, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov.

— Still stationed in Armenia the 102nd Russian military base. There's and air group of MiG-29 fighters and anti-aircraft missile regiment armed with s-300 V. So the Azerbaijani leadership is well aware of: in the case of "hot" conflict in Karabakh, Russia will be dragged into it and will give back.

In my opinion, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made a purely political move in response to economic pressure from Russia. Turkey is trying to scare and Armenia, and us. Now at least, Ankara to launch a big war in the Caucasus is not capable of.

The Turks did not receive support in NATO after the incident with the Russian su-24M. Meanwhile, without the consent or order of Washington, the Turks on an adventure in Karabakh can not go. Another thing that the US can resolve: failed to start a war with Russia in Ukraine will untie her in Transcaucasia. In theory, this might happen. But in reality, in my opinion, the moment for such operations for Washington's extremely inappropriate...

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