Tuesday, November 17, 2015

It is clear to even the most enthusiastic, the problems of the Ukraine the West completely indifferent.

Peacekeepers of NOVOROSSIYA

 It is clear to even the most enthusiastic, the problems of the Ukraine the West completely indifferent.

Pay whether the Sheriff for the debts of blacks?

To tell the truth is not always easy in the short term is usually more profitable to lie. But if what you say is often at odds with your business, be prepared for trouble.

America and Europe are actively supported in word Ukraine, in practical terms, however, as it became in the last two years it is clear to even the most enthusiastic Ukrainians, the problems of the Ukraine the West is deeply indifferent.

Russia now had the opportunity to use the lie of our American friends and partners to organize political beautiful combination — and Vladimir Putin successfully used this opportunity.

As you know, December 20, 2013, when the throne under Yanukovych already staggering, Kyiv, Ukraine received from Russia the credit in $ 3 billion at a fairly modest rate of 5% per annum. It was assumed that if Yanukovych will hold power in their hands, Russia will give Ukraine another $ 12 billion loan, and the money will allow Ukraine a year or two to patch holes in their cracking at the seams finances.

If Yanukovych remained sitting as President, the Crimea would be a part of Ukraine, no civil war in the Donbas would not have been, the dollar would be worth approximately 10 USD apiece, and the problems with the heating season and power outages average Ukrainian would not think at all.

But, as you know, in February in Kiev there was a coup, Yanukovych was forced to flee the country under threat of physical violence, and, of course, the $ 12 billion orange revolutionaries have not received. Spent 3 billion dollars to the revolutionaries will be forced to return will be in a month, December 20, 2015.

In principle, $ 3 billion is small money... for Russia. This is less than 1% of our gold and currency reserves. However, for Ukraine $ 3 billion — quite a heavy load, all the money accounted in the balance of payments of Ukraine already "colored" is reserved for those or other purposes and cannot be used for payment of this loan. If not to consider absolutely fantastic options, type "Ukrainian oligarchs to chip in a little bit and close the debt of the beloved state," in Ukraine there is only one real way to repay the loan: by reducing expenditures.

Unfortunately, the budget of Ukraine now so Sukosan, and the hryvnia so far removed from reality that squeeze out of the budget, those $ 3 billion are already possible except by stopping the payments of pensions and salaries of civil servants. The electorate of such a solution clearly do not understand. Consequently, on 20 December Ukraine to pay 3 billion dollars will not be — what, in fact, Ukrainian politicians have repeatedly stated already in plain text.

What would happen if Russia rigidly demanded to pay the $ 3 billion December 20 — what, in principle, our country has the full right?

Scenario A. Ukraine announces a default

This scenario is well laid out all the players and until recently was considered basic. December 20, Ukraine declares that will not pay the "Russian aggressor". "Russian aggressor" submits to the court of London, makes well-designed in 2013, the documents and indicates the fact that the orange revolutionaries regularly paid us a cent — that is acknowledged a debt.

Break for the sake of Ukraine the reputation of its judicial system in Britain is clearly not, so the decision will be made in favor of Russia — although, of course, Ukraine with some luck and be able to delay the case for 6-8 months. By the fall of 2016 Russia will have on hands all documents to shake off the money from Ukraine. Ukraine however still not going to pay us — as the money in the budget of Ukraine is clearly not increase.

Then Russia will start a fun game with the seizure of assets of Ukraine around the world — ranging from ships that carry grain from Ukraine for export. Money for good lawyers for Ukraine, the courts of other countries Ukraine is deeply indifferent: it's not nuclear Russia, which nobody wants to quarrel. So even though we will not put out so even a fraction of the three billion, but still suffer from our actions Ukraine will be quite strongly suffered in due time from Argentina to similar pressure from the USA.

An additional advantage for Russia is the ability to seize foreign assets of Ukrainian oligarchs — and thus force them to fulfill some of our wishes. Finally, a whole lot of fun can be obtained from arrest European assistance to Ukraine. Will allocate, for example, the EU a bit of money on salaries of Ukrainian corruption fighters, and we are in the time of the allocation of money will show the decision of the court and demand the transfer of all money in our account...

Of course, Americans do not want without a fight send Ukraine on the financial bottom: it would probably have buried their plans for a war of Ukraine with Russia and would be a painful blow to the image of the civilizers. Therefore, the States will attempt to bend the IMF so that the IMF continued to support Ukraine money even after default. The IMF will probably be forced to yield to the onslaught of uncle Sam: as you remember, the previous rebellious Director of the IMF got the blue mysterious story with the maid, after which his career derailed.

However, after such pressure, the tool is likely broken — other countries-founders of the IMF does not want to sponsor bankrupt for their own account and begin to flow into alternative structures, for example, established in 2015, the New development Bank of BRICS:


States are now playing for high stakes, so the destruction of the IMF, their not too worried. But Russia is still interested in how to get through while the IMF out of the hands of Americans in one piece.

Again, this scenario — with a final default of Ukraine in the end of December 2015 was not considered until recently the basic. However Vladimir Putin has made the Americans an offer they will be very hard to refuse.

Scenario B. the Sheriff pays for blacks

The proposal looks at first glance like a king is generous. 20 December 2015, Ukraine doesn't pay us anything. In 2016 we get from the first billion of Ukraine debt. In 2017 — the second billion. In 2018 the third billion.

But, as usually happens in such offers, large concessions on our part are accompanied by a "cosmetic" change in the terms of the contract. Quoting Vladimir Putin:


Because our partners are confident that the solvency of the Ukrainian state will grow and we have no reason to doubt that we will get three billion in the next year, no there were no fears of our partners to speak with a guarantee on this loan.

Want to make an analogy from life. "Are you telling me that Basil will pay exactly the debt and asking me to wait. Of course, I'll wait. But since you're so sure about Basil, we head to the notary and draw up a contract under which you will be responsible for the debt of Basil his apartment."

Now the Americans were faced with a difficult choice. To push for the remaining time the European Union is unlikely to succeed: the Europeans will Balk all the hooves and will probably be able to delay the decision until 20 December, when it will be too late. With the IMF also is not so simple — I'll write about it below. Therefore, the honor to guarantee $ 3 billion is submitted to the United States.

If the States would agree to meet us and agree with our terms and conditions, the default of Ukraine will be transferred for 2016 — and after the default of Ukraine States will be forced to pay the debts of those who are "exceptional nation" has by savages. Imagine a Sheriff who has long lived on the "problems of blacks of the Sheriff do not excite", and who was still forced to pay the debts, which the Negroes have done in local stores.

Such a humiliation, such a blow to the reputation of world policeman! American politicians would be extremely difficult to explain to the Congress and to journalists, as it happened, they assumed the obligation to pay the debts of Ukraine, knowing that Ukraine is bankrupt.

Important point: loan guarantees mean the signing of some legal documents that will make US automatically to pay the debt for Ukraine when it cannot do so themselves. Attempt to avoid payment of this debt would mean a U.S. default, but because the total debt is 65 trillion dollars, to declare a default due to the pathetic billion States will not:


The second option is to reject the generous offer of President Putin to leave Ukraine alone with the lenders is not better than the first. First, Washington recognized, was lying when he claimed, as if Ukraine is able to pay its bills, and just wanted to shift the financing he needed the country to someone else. The reputation of the US will greatly suffer, and to manage Ukraine States will be more difficult.

Secondly, and more importantly, the States will be after this refusal very hard to get the IMF to take Ukraine to the content. You have to understand that the U.S. has no majority stake in the IMF, the United States there is only a blocking stake. States can alone only to veto any decision of the IMF — but in order to get the IMF to do something, the States need more voices of other founders.

If Russia did not make generous offers to restructure the debt, it could be stated that if Russia uses debt to political pressure and say, we need to support the young democracy. But in a situation when Russia comes to meet, and the States refuse to help Ukraine guarantees the founders of the IMF will have all the reasons to refuse to sponsor the bankrupt Ukraine: how loans, and guarantees by loan to Ukraine.

Again, the IMF is now very unhappy with US policy and trying to slip off the American hook — be sure they use they have issued Russia an excuse to the fullest.

Simply put, if the States refuse to guarantee the debt of Ukraine, we go back to scenario "A", only the IMF in this case will get a good excuse to get an honorable duty to sink money into a bottomless hole of Ukrainian finances.

Why Vladimir Putin announced a proposal to restructure now?

First, in order not to give the States time to push the European Union. Secondly, because already on November 30 will be a meeting of the IMF, which, apparently, will be decided for two important issue — the allocation of financial assistance to Ukraine (in violation of the internal rules of the IMF) and the inclusion of the yuan in the list of reserve currencies. By the way, experts of the IMF — which, recall, are now on the same side with us against the Americans — have already recommended to include the yuan in the basket:


Interestingly, on our side in this game plays, perhaps, Barack Obama. Back in 2010, if I remember correctly, Barack Obama offered to give the U.S. a blocking minority in the US in the IMF to other countries. The Congress then the proposal of Barack Obama hacked, but now Barack Obama scored some good political clout and holds a harsh purge in the Pentagon and other agencies. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wants to avoid the failure of Washington to crack down on its political opponents.


Unfortunately, Washington is unlikely to accept the offer of Russia on Ukraine — again, the American politician who will put the signature under such document, it is unlikely the rest of your life will be washed from charges in a meaningless waste of $ 3 billion.

So most likely, we will see in the work of the worst version of your script "A" with a final default of Ukraine, but without stabilizing assistance from the IMF. Make I yet I do not see sense — until 30 November there are less than two weeks, and soon we will all see with our own eyes.

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