Thursday, August 20, 2015

War and statehood of Ukraine: the moment of truth has arrived

War and statehood of Ukraine: the moment of truth has arrived

Politicians, experts and the public concerned on both sides of the civil conflict in Ukraine are in waiting. Judging by all indications - the movement of troops of the junta and their concentration on the front line, the rhetoric of official Kiev, and most importantly - Washington, who for no reason, no reason accused the leadership of Russia and the republics of the New Russia in the escalating conflict in the Donbas - new blood to be.
On August 16, the army was given the DNI on full alert. Although Edward Basurin then denied it clear that it is true. According to him, the Nazis concentrated for an attack from the front line troops three strike groups of up to 70 battalions and about 500 tanks. The People's Council of the DNI said that all forces on full combat readiness in anticipation of the onset of the APU. According to intelligence, it must begin in the next week.
There is no doubt that the next bloody provocation Kiev and certain forces in Washington will end in disgrace, and this time a hard edge moving away to the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions in order to, firstly, to avoid new attacks on civilian towns, secondly, to force the junta to Minsk-3 (unless, of course, will still be in Kiev to talk to anyone). Nevertheless, the need to understand the causes of such behavior of the junta there. SinceSubsequently, the analysis can be useful for analysis of similar conflicts in other parts of the post-Soviet space, which rapidly begin to drift toward the Ukrainian version of events. Of course, here we are not talking about Belarus, whose leadership took over the civil conflict in Ukraine a clear and consistent position of support for official Kiev.
The reasons for this behavior are on the surface of the junta. First, the junta has not been able to confirm its monopoly (state monopoly) on the use of force. Even after the scandal in Mukachevo armed militants, and in fact - the terrorists have not been disarmed. Moreover, a further escalation of events in Kharkiv and Chernihiv showed that only extraordinary efforts junta can keep their assorted nokors from mass bloodshed. But this is all just showed its weakness. And in local elections in the autumn the situation has the potential to spiral out of control.
Secondly, the junta has failed to organize the work of the state apparatus and the state of the body. The centrifugal tendencies in the work of the state apparatus and failed to stop, anarchy and decentralization continue to grow. Social services, if not immersed in the nineteenth century, then certainly in the period before the second world - enough to read Ukrainian forums where not only detailed (and often obscene) describes what is happening in the field of education, culture, medicine, housing, but more people are given self-critical questions in a spirit of sharing, we, once we are morons.
The increasingly tough statements about the separation began to sound not only from the eastern regions of the country, but also from the western. And most importantly - the elite after Mukachevo and the inability of official Kiev and President Poroshenko tough to bring the situation under control, have begun to develop their own schemes in the coming period of survival without the support of the central power structure. And this is natural, because They understood perfectly - in which case no assistance from Kiev will not all - social sphere, and pensions, and housing and security forces, and the remaining industry - all fall on their shoulders.
Third, the junta has failed to organize the work of financial and economic component of the state. Falling exchange rates almost 3 times, the decline in GDP by 15%, falling turnover in the second quarter of this year by 24%, decrease in gold reserves by 3.5 times up to 6 billion. Dollars, loss of entire regions of the country's financial and economic life, it is only one and a half years!
Fourth, the growing problems in the energy sector, because of which can become not only the industry, but left without heat in the winter people in their homes - that is the only solution to lower the temperature in the winter to 16 degrees, while the growth in 3 times the rent !  T. e. there is a systematic political and economic crisis, a crisis of governance, which are superimposed on the civil war in the country. This will not stand no mode without going to the mobilization model of the economy and the tough political model of social organization.
But is the managing elite of Ukraine to such a qualitative shift? - No. Even as the applicants in the Fuhrer Yarosh and Nalyvaychenko as such looks serious. Therefore, it is available only another military provocation with the aim to shift the responsibility for the chaos and disintegration of the country before the arrival of winter in the New Russia and the Russian leadership.
I must admit that Russia is not a very good scenario. It would be better that the junta still crumbled after winter. To do this, it would be possible to coal and gas, and electricity, as long as they have experienced this winter.And so ... the West will hang the outbreak of civil conflict, the violation of the Minsk-2 and, above all, a humanitarian catastrophe in the winter of 2015-2016 Russia. Here gumkonvoyami as Donbass not get off - thirty-five million population, it's not three.
As a result, we have an understanding that came to power in a coup in February last year, the military junta terrorist neobanderovskaya realized its full inconsistency of state-forming. Came to power, the gang has not been able to start the work of the state. Therefore, the transition to a new round of military confrontation was inevitable. Russian society is necessary to prepare for a new tightening of the western military and political rhetoric, the new, more stringent sanctions. And the Russian government began the transition from the Media Technology Management public opinion to the real politics with real political figures and forces. Otherwise, the entire political structure, which is already hanging on one person, may not withstand a collision with the reality of the political phantom. It is a pity that it was not done earlier, when there were more time and it was quieter, and have to do it is almost always in the mode of state of emergency.
Roman Grigorenko regnum.ru

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