Ukrainian army: "The volunteers come to an end"
Kiev authorities intend to introduce a total electronic control of the conscripts ...
The Ukrainian authorities are looking for new and often very exotic ways to replenish the troops. In the Verkhovna Rada a bill on the establishment of the State register for military service. What is this document?
In a unified electronic database should get almost all men from 18 to 50 years. In addition to the register name, date and place of birth of potential recruits is planned enter data about his parents, place and nature of work.And yet - a photo and details about any crossing of the state border of the young man.
If, however, entered in the register reservist decides still to evade military service, he can not officially get a job, to do business, to sell and buy cars and real estate, take out loans and make deposits in banks.
Why all this? A comprehensive response to the deputy commander gave the so-called "anti-terrorist operation" Valentin Fedichev: "We have to say clearly that there is no one to defend Ukraine, volunteers come to an end."And if so - a network of military enlistment offices to catch replenishment in Ukraine should make absolutely irresistible for draft dodgers.
And they, draft dodgers, in today's Ukraine, according to official data, six million people. Just completed six "wave" mobilization there has failed.Throughout the country, it is made up of only 60%. In many areas, we could not achieve the figure and 50%. Particularly distinguished previously considered loyal to Kiev, and Sumy Konotop. It is made up of only 20% and 15% respectively.
- Ukrainians are categorically unwilling to fight, - said the director of the International Institute of the newest states Alexei Martynov . - A small percentage of activists motivated ideologically "charged", is rapidly declining. And most do not want to participate in the killing. Moreover, the military action in Ukraine there is no noble purpose. This is not a defense of the Fatherland, namely civil war.
- What are the social consequences may lead tightening of mobilization?
- This will lead to a further exodus of able-bodied population of Ukraine.Although even today the men of military age leaving the country en masse, to go abroad for any earnings to relatives. Yes anywhere. If only out of the military enlistment office.
The outflow of men of military age, that is the most able-bodied, even more aggravate the economic problems of Ukraine. If the strategy is implemented forcible "zabrivaniya" in the army, it will lead to social protests. It's one thing when the war only in television pictures. But when it touches every Ukrainian family, there will be a riot.
- Can the Kiev government, in principle, to increase the combat capability of the army?
- Modern wars are not being successfully unskilled crowds of reservists and military professionals with modern weapons and support systems.None of this in the Ukraine. Kiev generals are trying to plug the gaps "meat". In the current circumstances, I would call it murder their own populations.
- The best evidence of how things stand with the mobilization of the Ukraine may serve as evidence in Kharkiv and Odessa region - says a senior researcher at the Institute of Russian History political analyst Andrei Marchuk. - From the regions military conscription could send the troops by one third to one half of the supply plan recruits. People were running in Russia, or holed up in the villages.
Separately it is necessary to consider the region of Western Ukraine. The people there do not want to go into the army, rather, not for ideological reasons, but simply do not want to die. They want someone to do something for them, while they themselves uezhayut in Slovakia, Poland or any other country where there is quiet and Ukrainian military.
In the Dnepropetrovsk region have been quite egregious. Commissar together with police officers blocked the entrances to all the major shopping centers and men of military age were presented agenda. As mentioned military commissars, other ways to fill up the army there.
Creating a state register for military service - is a logical continuation of the policy of militarism and bleed the citizens. It is quite elaborate, though a necessary measure from the Kiev leadership.
- But at least half of the plan to mobilize still manages to perform.
- Many people still are law-abiding. If you receive the agenda, many believe that it is necessary to go to serve. Second, the hope that does not get the troops in Donbass. Third, evasion is a criminal offense. Get a few years in prison nobody wants.
It is surprising and encouraging that half to two-thirds of evading mobilization.
- Will the law on the state registry work?
- This measure can serve as another incentive to a certain number of recruits sent to military units. But the massive evasion of the mobilization will continue.
Indeed, people's lives much more difficult. First of all, the restrictions will affect the residents of large cities. With regard to the transaction at hand, the room for maneuver will be more.
In addition, this is the saving "gold mine" of corruption. Users will be able to buy their way out of conscription. The disadvantage will be Ukrainian military enlistment offices, the police, the SBU. I suspect they will take bribes to issue a certificate is exempt from mobilization.
- The economic situation in Ukraine is deplorable, the majority do not have enough money for bribes.
- At the mercy of the mobilization of money there. Social explosion should not wait. In the spring of 2014 it was decided naive to think that in Ukraine there will be some social upheaval. Nothing will happen. Ukrainian society is socially and politically passive. No protest will not.
As for the bribes, you should recall the history of the Great Patriotic War.Widely known cases where doctors or employees occupying administrations saved people from being driven to Germany by issuing fake certificates of illness. But there have been cases where the same reference issued for big bribes.
When our governments have returned to areas of liberation from the Nazis, and began to understand, it became clear that the former officials of the occupation authorities to fake certificates currently amassed huge fortunes.
The same thing will happen to Ukraine today. Do not think that there are rogue live alone and no one has any money. Bribery thanks to the State Register blossom.
- What is the reason that the "Volunteers in Ukraine have ended?"
- Punitive battalions bring victory in the Donbass, and could not. The main burden in the fighting for the regular army units. With regard to the social stock of territorial battalions, it has not been exhausted. But there really are fewer and fewer people. This is due to the fact that the war dragged on. If the Ukrainian side advancing, it would be many who want to profit at the expense of Donbass and stand in the halo of "defenders of Ukraine."Instead, big losses.
And the Kiev government can not rely on volunteer battalions. Army - State Institute. A battalion almost nobody obey. There is also a political aspect.
- The growing number of people leaving in Russia conscription evaders will change the attitude to our country in the Ukraine?
- Of course, we can expect to increase the flow of Ukrainian citizens in Russia. On the one hand, people run for political convictions. But many people simply do not want to fight. As for the attitude of these people to the idea of an all-Russian, then for many it is amorphous. There are those who have worked long and hard to decry Russia, but is coming to us, avoiding trouble.
In principle, I do not think that the introduction of the state register will bring something new to the psychological state of the Ukrainian society.This is one of the steps to control the population.
Although each "crackdown" contributes to the accumulation of discontent and growing desire for change.
- The Ukrainian government is not afraid of that total control over the men of conscription age oppose it with all the people?
- Kiev authorities do not fear. They are counting on the support of the West. No social explosion are not afraid. Do not fear, and that the army will begin to decay, all will result in "ataman". This period is already partially passed.
People with guns, particularly as part of the APU, the danger for the government is not represented. In Kiev, they will not go, though, and often threatened to do so. There may be deserters, but they will catch.