Tuesday, June 23, 2015

#Ukraine an Economic Failed State

#Ukraine an Economic Failed State


Alexander Rogers: Etalon Sverhnaglosti - likely the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine wants to cheat Western creditors out of 30 billion Dollars and I finally was able to understand the intricacies of the mad logic of the Kiev regime in the economic sphere anyway. 

To understand where they are going to get the money to meet their unrealistic plans. Let me remind you that Yaresko and her accomplices argued, (following the recommendations of the IMF), that they increased their gold reserves by the end of the year to $ 18.3 billion. I still could not understand where they going to take the money - in fact no visible source for this is not shown, and the Ministry of Economic Development downgraded the outlook for economic recession from -5% to -7.5%. 

She did so only after a deterioration of the forecasts of the IMF and World Bank, who believe that the drop will be 9%. And then came a fresh application Yaresko and I understand their "logic." They are not going to earn it, they plan to write it all off! 

But let's inspect the details.The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine requires (not asking for that would be appropriate in this situation, namely the need), creditors to write off $ 15.3 billion of debt. Lenders to this disagree, and instead suggest that the NBU has spent on the repayment of debt of $ 8 billion (which, for obvious reasons, does not agree already Kiev junta). 

The current gold reserves of the NBU account for about $ 9 billion. If they have to pay $ 8 billion to creditors, then there's just virtually is nothing left - not enough to ensure the ongoing operations of export-import, or to ensure the hryvnia according to the monetarist principles (which now formally need about $ 40 billion). The IMF has these money plans - they want the gold reserves of Ukraine served as collateral for debts to the IMF, and not for the debts of private creditors. 

What's the point of view of the past (and in general) - simple Kidalovo?  But even if all of a sudden there would be a miracle, a divine intervention, and the creditors committee will write off Kiev's $ 15 billion debt, international reserves this does not increase to $ 18.3, they will remain at $ 9 billion . 

Kiev in their calculations novice accountant makes a mistake - makes the operation of this amount TWICE - once subtracts debt a second time adds to inventory! However, if the operations are carried out with the amount of $ 15.3 billion, that is why the result is not $ 24, 3 billion, but only $ 18.3 billion? And because another $ 6 billion Kiev is going to pull, because the gold reserves of Ukraine steadily falling. That is the end of the year even if the write-off of debts on the balance sheet will remain $ 18.3 billion, according to the plans to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, but only about $ 3 billion. 

Of course , the amount is not exact, because on the one hand, some planned revenues from privatization urgent (but not significant, because the country preddefoltnom buy assets at full price will not be), and on the other - deep budget deficits, and the funds will go to compensate for this deficit. But in general, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine is trying to "cheat" surrounding the amount of 30 (15 + 15) billion dollars, showing better performance than they are not only there, but also what they can be. 

I do not think that this primitive mistake could happen by accident, most likely a deliberate sell (the leadership and the Ministry of Finance still speculating on CDS). As forecasts about the sudden growth of Ukraine's GDP in the first quarter of the following year (from what suddenly?). And, most likely, this attempt Nadur with all reporting takes place with the consent of the IMF, which expects so throw private creditors. 

However, the market is not so easy Nadur (especially such shabby tricks), there sits a huge number of qualified specialists.Therefore, Ukrainian bonds only in recent days lost about 10% of its value.

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