Monday, February 16, 2015

Debaltsevsky "Pot" has put Ukraine in a Very Unpleasant Situation

Death in Debaltsevskogo Boiler
Yesterday's combat activity Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevskom boiler was replaced by panic moods.

Notes the surrender whole units, as well as massive attempts to get out of the environment unorganized small groups and individually, including under the guise of civilians.

Punishers even try to go on foot, avoiding the roads. But at the moment around the encircled occupiers VSN outposts and put this veil of secrets. So most of the escapees manage to intercept and detain, writes

Debaltsevsky "pot" has put Ukraine in a very unpleasant situation. From now on punitive can not recognize any number surrounded by a group: still on the whole world knows as the fact that Kiev has thrown his soldiers to "poke" to fend for themselves.

In the world there is nothing more irrational than Ukrainian nationalism: for its speakers is the norm, when judgment and behavior can not be explained by common sense. The same applies in full measure, and what is happening on Debaltsevskom beachhead, where, according to Pan Supreme Commander, "APU soldiers bravely keeping defenses, and supply is carried out in full," even though everyone knows that the road to Artiomovsk more than a week as the host of the cut.

It is still unclear why Kiev did not give the order to the abandonment of the bridgehead, although the "pot" under Debaltseve back in September 2014 did not predict just lazy. How and why does not give an order group, stationed in the villages and Mironovsky Svetlodarsk, go to the north shore of Lugan and gain a foothold there. Especially in this case, the punishers will be separated from the two powerful militia reservoirs at very convenient for the defense of the beachhead.

Alas, the junta cherishes hopes to break through the strengthening of militias and unlock the poor fellows in the "pot". Apparently, to those in captivity are not blabbed what not to, although Ukrainian command error - military secret Punchinello.

And in the hot heads of Kiev generals still "mature" plans to break through the Russian border and take it under control: the woodpecker, as we know, can not peck. Of course, against the backdrop of grandiose promises geleteevskih Ukrainian parade in Sevastopol, they look very modest, though no less paranoid.

Debaltseve turned the moment of truth, after which there should be clear to all the rotten nature of the usurping clicks in Kiev. The junta has already received probably not even call, but insulting slap in the face, and Mighty cuff, leaving the "Lantern" eye. Clearly, in this case wants revenge, but here it is possible to run and knockdown: militia already strong enough and hits the superior forces of the enemy.

It is clear that the chances of rescue groups surrounded by miserable, and a small selection here: inglorious death or shameful capitulation. In short, horseradish radish is not sweeter, especially since the turmoil in both cases guaranteed.

Military experts have repeatedly reported that in the coming weeks can be a so-called "revolution battalions" when punitive tired of inaction junta, and they will take power into their own hands."Maidan" and other ceremonies should not wait: a coup to be fleeting and cruel with their heads, flying left and right.

Signal to it, is likely to be the news of the tragic finale surrounded by groups. Debaltseve vzdёrnet Ukraine on its hind legs. Or on the rack, which is also very likely.

Waiting for the formal launch of the armistice, yet let me say that I think limiting, however the military side of the question. Yet I am an expert on these matters (dissertations still wrote on this topic), and, as they say, have a right to.

First. The episode, in fact, was crucial. "Kievtsy" (let's call them the correctness of so) could decide the outcome of the war.

In the Internet there are many schemes. I think everybody was just planned (in the war - the simpler the better). Cleave to the border.Without getting involved in street fights and attempts to take the settlements ("Slavic" lesson "kievtsy" learned - a fact).

I think everybody understands the consequences of success.Especially if it is supplemented by a blow from Mariupol contrary to the defense collapsed. And then it was possible to further squeezed (hence clinging to the airport). Very similar to the operation to take Baghdad during the second Gulf War. Risky, but could work, especially if the situation swam in DNR-LC.

Second. Let me draw your attention to:

1. Really a very large amount of equipment;

2. Strongly increased compared to August staff culture at kievtsev (obviously at headquarters amers sit - you can not even doubt)

3. With all the pressure to close the "pot" on a wide range - through Svetlodar - failed, although such attempts were obviously - resources for defense enough. And do not be a combat capability Ukrainian army to draw conclusions on Semenchenko idiot ... .. They've been very serious and very serious force people who were willing to fight (for whatever reasons).

Third. "Kievtsy" really invested in this plan. Not only the equipment, but also humans. For them, it was probably a clone operation "Citadel" (Kursk, if someone does not understand) to Hitler.

Death Ilovaisky boiler

Invested technique, men, money, pumped morale. The latter is very important. Let me draw your attention again to the lack of demoralisation and "collapse" in the success of the "militia", as happened in Ilovaiskaya boiler. It was really a national mobilization.

But it was hysteroid mobilization, mobilization "stretched string" (hence the apparent stupidity propaganda "Kalmyk cavalry").

Now - when "failed" (and "did not work" is probably very cool and hurt) "string" can burst (such as in the United States after the failure of the Vietnamese "Tet offensive of the month" in 1968 - an unsuccessful attack, and US "burst"). Especially that "war veterans" are not blind and see what happens celebration of life on the home front.

Fourth. Actions militias were preventive in nature and were absolutely correct strategically, but the growth of tactical skill I have, alas, has not yet seen. Moreover, he saw signs shapkozakidatelstva.

Moral level was almost equal. Played a decisive role in engineering excellence, and of course - unfavorable to the defense configuration "debaltsevskogo projection" - as we have in 1941, when the Germans were isolated for 3 days Bialystok ledge. But if the "Donetsk" tough and with costs not put things in order, the "kievtsev" could happen. Believe me ... ..

Fifth. In "debaltsevskoy operations", "burned" remnants "pre-war" of the Ukrainian army. 

First of all, the officers' corps ", in particular, that part of it which has passed through the" internship "in local conflicts.

If the boiler will come less than three thousand people, it would mean that the next potential for serious offensive action in "kievtsev" will appear in August. Or does not appear at all. Depending on how you will "burn" the "fourth mobilization". And this despite the fact that the "militia" its potential as a whole preserved (this is very evident in the video).

Sixth. For the West, the success of "debaltsevskoy operations" - was the penultimate chance to persuade you know who to peace in Western terms (recognizing, of course, for the Russian Crimea, but with compensation).

When it became clear that not happened, began throwing. And here the question of who and how it will run in these throws. 

But I think some shift will begin after April (unless, of course, cease fire, and a chance to have it - all tirelessly fighting go month to fight hard in the winter) . Up to this point may even be some increased pressure (for example, to cover the change of power in Kiev - and Poroshenko clearly tired all).

Finally, this is my point of view, it is not based on any "sklyuzife" I do not have any "sources close to the informed," I'm just a specialist in local conflicts, carefully read and look at the map.

Based on: Victor Pastushenko &  Andrew Chervonet

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