In the London Court of Arbitration is the claim of China to return loan to Ukraine at $ 3 billion allocated for the supply of grain in 2013 and the purchase of Chinese goods. Will Kiev to settle the dispute, and what would happen if this can not be done?
RIA Novosti Ilya Pitalev & Marat Prigogine, RIA Novosti Ukraine
China appealed to the London Court of International Arbitration proceedings against the Ukraine on the return of $ 3 billion allocated to our country for the purchase of Ukrainian grain. grain supplies were to be held in 2013, but this did not happen . The miracle did not happen in the past year: the contract is not fulfilled, and, apparently, Kiev is waiting for trial in London. As a result, it is very likely that the money return still have. Especially because in jeopardy is the planting season - all agricultural workers can mobilize.
Ukraine will probably default. China is angry because no grain In 2012, the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed to provide a loan to the Ukrainian side in the amount of $ 3 billion, which was planned to be at the forward and spot purchases of grain for future delivery to China.
The first tranche of $ 1.5 billion, the company received in early 2013. By the second half of the loan Ukraine pledged to buy Chinese goods. Over the past two years, China has received in the amount of grain only 153 million dollars. Back in March 2014, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Igor Schweich confirmed that China has filed a lawsuit against the Ukraine in a London court to repay the loan at $ 3 billion. " The past management submitted false information that there are no claims to us from China.
According to the contract have different interpretations, different interpretations, which led to the treatment of the Chinese side in court Gaft who works in London. Registered dispute between the parties there , "- said then Minister. According to him, the Ukrainian side at the time was looking for ways of peaceful settlement of the dispute . "For our part we will do our steps to ensure that the other party or withdrew its application, or we find another way to a peaceful settlement," - said Schweich. The minister did not specify that the search for pre-trial settlement of the methods consists of two choices: either Ukraine fulfills its obligations under the contract or return the credit.
In Ukraine, was created the Financial Stability Board. Expert Opinion State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (STATE FOOD) supplied grain in 2013 somewhere, but not in China. The new Kiev authorities had a great chance to really fix the short-sighted actions "of the regime of Yanukovich" and adopt a positive image in the eyes of the Chinese side . But in China it is immaterial aspect of cooperation is just as important as the business. Moreover, China's economic ties businessmen can not take place without confidence in the reliability of the counterparty. Simply put, China with everything politicians did not work, including in Ukraine.
Earlier in the Ukrainian media China experts have repeatedly noted that the country's leadership has not sought to cooperate with the Yulia Tymoshenko , but planned to develop the work during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych . During the events of February the Chinese businessmen were advised to wait to resolve the crisis. And after the grain "embarrassment" and even failure of a number of transactions, according to experts, the public authorities do not recommend Chinese businesses to develop cooperation with Ukraine, and blame the Kiev authorities can only yourself .
Alex Luponosov , Head of the portal ua-banker.com, believes that Ukraine needs to repay loans, the expense of which were carried out real projects rather than cash used improper means. " If there are loans, no matter whose - Chinese, Italian, French, IMF - which have been issued but are used inappropriately by, these loans should be a separate category. It should be court proceedings, to determine where the money went and what they're gone - assets accounts abroad. From there, they should be withdrawn in favor of the budget of Ukraine, and already have to pay the debts. And no way that members of the public to squeeze the last penny to pay for them. In our situation, it is necessary to talk about debt restructuring and updating "- said the expert.
Ukraine will receive from the EU "donated" by € 300 million - expert Luponosov cited the example of a control system for budgetary funds, which acts in Russia : "It is often said that in Russia everything is bad. But it was when Mr. Putin was done so that every penny fiscal visible. There are special markers that help track the budget even in the tenth round of their turnover. We have no such markers. So today the big question - what was spent Chinese money? " " Whoever took them - should return, because they do not evaporate. The money must be sought and returned, and before that to pay from the budget (corporate debt) - is a crime , "- said the expert.
Nobody sowing - and nothing to give a Probably, Ukraine could resolve the dispute with China in the pretrial order, by supplying the missing volumes of grain. Finally, we remember that we had a record harvest and export of grain is almost the only source of income from exports of Ukrainian origin. According to Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, on January 14 in the 2014/2015 marketing year the volumes exported and prepared for export of grain up 20.43 million tonnes (wheat - 8415 thousand. Tons, barley - 3730 thousand. Tons and corn - 8055 thousand. Tons ).
What statistics will be in a year? If the declaration of mobilization will take place in the planned figures, up to 100 thousand people in three stages, the sowing campaign or not take place, either on the field of the country will have to go grain traders, MPs and NSDC in full . Site of the President of Ukraine Another approach to mobilization: who will not go to war in the ATO As part of the mobilization, which starts on January 20 at first sight military offices gets the most "unrequited" of the male population of the country - in rural areas. They are likely to plan to provide decent performance replenish troops. By the way, in the central and eastern regions of Ukraine travel to work abroad were not a common practice, as in the western regions. The agricultural sector worked steadily, and employment in agriculture was at a satisfactory level. T EPER same machine operators can call on the "Eastern Front", and then carry out the sowing campaign will be nobody .
In this context, Ukraine really will not be able to pay with China grain because of this product we do not have. According Luponosova, at this stage, to find the necessary amount of grain is unrealistic . China grain to contract certain forms, characteristics and standards. " This is a big question - Will the kind of money needed to buy grain characteristics. However, it is necessary to its credibility in the international market support: to find the money to buy them and put grain to China , "- said the expert. At the same time, Ukraine is unlikely to grow and supply of grain, as the sowing is under threat, he added. " This is not say, but there is a big shortage of technicians: combiners, adjusters, machine - all of them were taken to the army.
They were vulnerable people, and they are the first to come under appeal (in 2014). Many are no longer alive, and many more will be picked up in the mobilization of 50 thousand people , "- said Luponosov. See also : In the event of default in Ukraine 5 years will live on bread and water "If in January fulfill the call of 50 thousand, then - even then - everything. The situation is terrible. Now try to Parliament to amend that these people were taken from the village. They can not escape from the army - come, take, and they can not do anything, "- said Luponosov.
By the way, in addition to the "grain" of the loan, Ukraine has received from China a loan of $ 3.6 billion for the gasification of coal, and "Naftogaz" Ukraine has received under the state guarantees $ 2.3 billion . Information about the project on coal gasification not, and somehow seems high probability of the outcome of the court . How to use the credit funds "Naftogaz" is also unclear. However, if China will decide to collect them, it means the bankruptcy of the company or sovereign default , if Ukraine wants to pay this amount instead of heat. Difference who first become bankrupt, virtually erased.