Friday, January 30, 2015

Analytics: Novorossians Fighting for their Freedom...


Analytics: Novorossians Fighting for their Freedom...


Jan. 28, 2015
As I pointed out in an article on the last, week, mid-January 2015, was marked by intensified fighting units from the APU. This was the case in almost all the line of contact with the armed forces of New Russia. VSN not long in coming, and fights broke out with a new, previously unseen force.

And so, Donetsk direction. On its western front is planned ousting APU from their positions. Many thought that the relatively rapid release of the airport and the surrounding area will set the pace of further progress VSN forces to the west, but it should be borne in mind that in this area, as well as all along the line of contact between the warring parties, APU units deployed and positional battles fought many months.During these months, Ukrainian law enforcers have created quite powerful fortifications and significant forces pulled out of the reserve. Therefore, regardless of the level of professionalism units VSN ,, from their staffing necessary weapons, promoting further west "bogged down" in the next couple of weeks.

Judging by the clashes taking place in the current situation, for VSN enough right decision is a "feeling out" defense APU, along the whole front, followed by pre-emptive strikes in places optimal for a breakthrough. In addition, keeping the fighting across the frontline forces APU "stretch" their units, making it not possible to create a striking force and generally significant concentration of power in certain areas.

Notwithstanding the foregoing APU pulls his considerable power in the area Debaltseve. This is due to the fact that the army of New Russia sent back their units and take all necessary measures to close the Ukrainian military in a full pot. At the moment, assault units VSN, are fixed on both sides of the road "M-103", which leads from Debaltseve, through the "neck protrusion" north to Artiomovskiy. For example, in the area Gorlovki assault units DNR lead the offensive in Novoluganskom and Lozovoi. On the opposite side of the track armed forces LC fixed in Red Plowman, Mironovskaya Mironovka. The presence of artillery VSN on the above positions allows you to "beat" the section of the track "M-103" "direct fire", which will provide full control over the movements of the APU units at the boiler outlet. 

At the same time, just more active fighting around the perimeter of the "boot", where units carried out an attack on the New Russia APU units pushing them toward the center. "Collapse of the projection" and attack from different directions appear to produce fighters APU required demoralizing effect, which is necessary for the successful formation of BCH boiler with subsequent surrender, there are divisions. To prevent such a development scenario APU throws their units to the "neck boot", thus attempting to keep track under his control and partial withdrawal of its forces from the problem area. In addition, all do not forget about the three levels of defense in the area Debaltseve and rather large total number of units of the Ukrainian army in the area. Given the above factors, as well as the fact that the "boot" is one of the priorities of the WPC, the decision of the situation will not take long. Will it be a mass surrender units APU captured, their disarmament, followed by withdrawal or systematic destruction, we see the coming weeks.Confidence in this scenario makes the fact that the BCH has not leverage its core strength.

On Bakhmut direction unit VSN after a brief pause, the newly resumed active hostilities and attack positions on the outskirts of the APU to the Crimean, lower and gold. Offensive VSN "loose" well-fortified defense line of the enemy and pull back reserves APU. Establish control over the territory of the river bank of the Seversky Donets, near the village of Lower unit VSN thus cropped movable units APU from the north to the area, as there are a number of crossings. In this case, the totality of the territories controlled by the coast to the village of Lower Lugansk provide construction serious defense line on the outskirts of the Lugansk People's Republic in the north. This will protect against breakouts tank and assault units, but there is a danger of artillery bombardments and shelling MLRS as settlements located near the river and most of Lugansk. 

At this moment, in this sector, conducting battles in general and limited recurring artillery duel.Their intensity is not high, but at the same time, the APU were "beat" directly in Lugansk, which for some time almost was not. Immediately there is a survey that is carried for a bombardment of the city, especially in Donetsk, Lugansk and Gorlovki? What purpose is it intended APU? Provoking VSN on the conduct of hostilities higher intensity or systematic destruction of people and infrastructure? Or all of this together is the aim of the APU? The last question I would answer in the affirmative.

At the direction of Mariupol, after a series of successful military actions of New Russia, and came a kind of "calm". VSN position very close to the suburban village of Mariupol, such as Grape Talakovka and, thus, as such occurrences BCH units in the settlements themselves were not. As I explained earlier, management of urban armies in Novorosii in Mariupol will have catastrophic consequences in terms of civilian casualties, losses of personnel and substantial destruction of the infrastructure of the city.

Thus, the overall situation in a number of areas the frontline after a short period counteroffensive BCH again got kind of positional battles to "harass" Defense warring parties. However, next week offensive VSN gain a more global and serious, as the APU already use the second tier, and the army of New Russia continues to "work" so far only assault brigade, is not involved with the main forces.

But that will factor for engaging the main forces - the boiler near Debaltseve, environment Mariupol breakthrough fortified VSN on the frontline? This we learn in the future.

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