Yuri Selivanov: Why Putin Stopped Novorussia Offensive
Poroshenko, “we cannot take over Donbas by military means”,it would be an endless Bloodbath.Today in 13:21
Russia has essentially found the answer to the eternal question of “who is to blame” with regard to Ukraine (almost to the condition of a national consensus judging by the dismal number of pro-Bandera “peace march” of about 10 thousand participants nationwide). Almost total bewilderment with regard to the other fundamental question of “what to do” still persists.
So Putin has put his finger in the pie, or, to be more precise, has undoubtedly played a major role in putting the Donbas conflict military phase to a stop. But, please, take a note - he has not just stopped it but tentatively “recommended” to gripe Poroshenko’s and his army ass so hard as to leave them no illusions whatsoever with regard to any possible military victory. He has also most certainly have made it quite clear that in case of any further moves by Kiev takeover of Mariupol will most probably be just the beginning and Kiev junta will be forced to abandon another couple of neighboring regions. One can rate the degree of Russian leader’s force of conviction by assessing bleak speeches of Poroshenko himself who’s belligerence has immediately vanished into thin air giving place to sad revelations with regard to the fact that “we cannot take over Donbas by military means”.
The fact is that Putin with his fellowmen have really knocked out from junta’s hands the axe of war that promised nothing good to Russia. In case the war scenario stayed on the agenda Moscow would have found itself in an uneasy situation. First, Novorussia forces are limited, secondly, it would have been rather awkward to provide it with large-scale and de-jure illegitimate military aid. But then again it would have been an endless bloodbath perspective in Russia-Ukraine relationship. God/Heavens forbid such a prospect!
Currently military confrontation on the front stage is apparently replaced by the time factor and socio-economic issues. Here we have to pay dues to our Kremlin chess Grand Master – he has all the trump cards on hand or, to put it otherwise, every pawn is a passer! And almost every one may turn into a victorious Queen.
Russia has refused to kill its blood brothers in Ukraine and start a war against them, even a liberation war. It has thus honored norms of humanism and international decent behavior. Russian Federation has an absolutely uncontested lawful right for its unwillingness to further feed hostile Ukrainian government with free of charge energy supplies as well as to please it with all kind of economic benefits. This right is absolutely in line with the understandings of both the international financial entities as well as an average Ukrainian bazaar merchant. Hence, both the international community and the Ukrainian public will be forced to admit Russia’s right to care first about its own interests simply because they would have acted similarly in its place.
Based on that firm moral and ethic platform Vladimir Putin starts his leisurely business discussion with Ukraine. About natural gas and Ukrainian products deliveries, about Ukrainian defense industry stalled as a result of trade rupture with Russia, about border-crossing regulations, Ukrainian association with EU and in fact anything else. In any case Kiev has no trump card in his sleeve to answer. Neither mass digging of trenches, nor erection of fantastic walls along the border, not even calls to use “nuclear machine gun” will help. Commodity-money-commodity – that’s the entire relational scheme. Cast in iron – from world rules standpoint. Either pay USD 6 billion in debts and get the natural gas or you are on your own. Either supply Russia with missiles and military helicopters engines or get lost. Also forget about Roshen chocolate. We’ll manage with our Rot-front chocolate.
We’ll thank God in case Ukraine can exist under those conditions and the West will provide it with billions in loans and purchases all Ukrainian production 50 years in advance – guys, get the flag in your hands.
The problem is that nothing like that will ever happen and Putin of course knows it for sure. Poroshenko knows as well. As well as Obama and Merkel. No one will now give Ukraine anything. Russia will also give Ukraine nothing for free. Though we can discuss conditions. Especially since Ukraine has been familiar with the list of those Russian condition long ago. In essence the only major demand is for Ukraine to become a normal country once again – not the bloodthirsty fascist monster a la Third Reich. This is quite achievable in case one has any brains. Or at least on condition of having a real President rather than a U.S. clown.
So the ball is on Poroshenko’s side. It is Putin who is finally playing the game. The game in which Russia has all the trump cards while Kiev has only sixes. So why kill the people?